האם כשלונות המודיעין בלתי נמנעים?: הסתכלות על כשלונות ישראלים ואמריקאים

מקצוע
מילות מפתח , , , , , ,
שנת הגשה 2006
מספר מילים 3368
מספר מקורות 12

תקציר העבודה

The Israeli society is one of the most highly militaries on earth and “it spends more GNP per head on intelligence then any other country” (Todd & Bloch, 2004).  The US spends billions of dollars on its intelligence capabilities.  Yet, both states suffered considerable intelligence failures.  Are intelligence failures inevitable?  This essay will discuss this issue by reviewing different types of intelligence failures namely the failure to predict an attack, to predict a political incidents, economical incidents, and strategic estimates.  This essay will then explore different explanations to intelligence failures which will follow by a review of two historical intelligence failures namely the Yom Kippur War and the Cuba Missile Crisis and different explanations for them.  It will then give four ideas for solutions to intelligence failures namely a separation of intelligence analysis process from the political scene, the pluralistic intelligence community, consideration of intelligence analyses before establishing policy, and the improvement of thought processes.  This will follow by criticism of the suggested ideas and will conclude with final thoughts about the statement.